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Oil’s Perfect Storm? No, It’s Much Worse Than That

Oil’s Perfect Storm? No, It’s Much Worse Than That

Submitted by • March 24, 2020

Oil is the premier fuel of transportation. With most flights grounded, borders closed and road transport at a standstill, except for some freight, the result has been colossal demand shock.

Nobody has a handle on the extent of the decline in demand. The International Energy Agency’s March flagship report cut global demand by 900 barrels per day (bpd) for the year and by 2.8 million bpd for the second quarter. Some analysts and oil companies have flagged a decline of 12-13 million bpd. In reality, information from consumer countries trickles in slowly and unreliably. There is no idea of the eventual demand decline. An educated guess would be that it will far exceed the 10-12 percent of global production predicted by the gloomiest forecasts.

Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to reach an agreement at the OPEC+ meetings on March 6 to increase December production cuts of 2.1 million bpd by another 1.5 million bpd. The Kingdom reversed gear and said it would increase production to 12.3 millio

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